Recent analysis from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco indicates that net international migration (NIM) to the United States has declined sharply in 2025, following a downward trend that began in mid-2024. According to updated estimates by Evgeniya Duzhak and Addie New-Schmidt, NIM for 2025 is projected to be around 1.0 million. This figure is approximately 1.6 million lower than in 2024 and about 2.5 million below the level seen in 2023.
The authors explain that between 2022 and 2024, NIM played a significant role in expanding the U.S. labor force, helping reduce labor market tightness. However, this effect is expected to diminish substantially in 2025 due to the recent decline.
The methodology used builds on previous work by Duzhak (2024) and closely follows the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) approach for estimating undocumented immigrant inflows and NIM. The new estimates are based on Department of Homeland Security data through May 2025.
“Our previously updated estimates of inflows reflected a slight decline towards the end of 2024,” said Duzhak and New-Schmidt.
Their revised estimate places NIM for 2024 at about 2.6 million—300,000 lower than their earlier projection and about 100,000 less than the CBO’s revised estimate for that year.
“Using the most recent data from the Department of Homeland Security through May 2025, we estimate that NIM in 2024 was closer to 2.6 million, about 300,000 lower than we previously estimated and 100,000 lower than the CBO’s revised estimate,” according to Duzhak and New-Schmidt.
The main reason for this revision is new data indicating fewer undetected immigrants entered during the fourth quarter of last year as well as lower-than-projected inflows at or between ports of entry during that period.
“For undetected entries we follow the CBO’s 2025 report that uses Border Patrol testimony to estimate that 800,000 people entered undetected in 2024, down from the previous estimate of 860,000,” they stated.
Arrivals at or between ports of entry dropped more quickly than anticipated late last year; inflows were around half those projected earlier by November estimates.
Looking at trends into this year, their analysis shows undocumented immigrant inflows fell from about one million per quarter at their peak near end-2023 to roughly 180,000 by Q2 of this year—a sharp decrease attributed largely to reduced arrivals along U.S. borders.
“When immigrants are encountered either at a port of entry by the Office of Field Operations (OFO) or along the border by the U.S. Border Patrol (USBP), a number of different outcomes may occur,” they explained. “Migrants may be removed from the country, given a notice to appear in court, put on parole, released, or be subject to a few other outcomes depending on circumstances.”
They further noted: “Following the CBO, we assume that those given a notice to appear, put on parole or released are all effectively ‘released’ in the sense they remain in country.”
According to Figure 2 referenced in their analysis—and based on data from Customs and Border Protection—the overall number of encounters with migrants has fallen significantly since last year while release rates have also dropped nationwide. In May 2025 these rates reached about ten percent—levels not seen since early pandemic months or early-2012 when rates hovered around twelve percent.
The researchers attribute these declines partly to stricter immigration policies leading both unlawful entries and releases downward since February of this year—returning numbers closer to pre-pandemic levels observed in 2021.
However—as noted—NIM calculations also account for lawful permanent residents as well as nonimmigrants like students and temporary workers alongside outflows from emigration or removal processes; after considering all components they expect total NIM will settle near one million persons for the full calendar year—a return toward historic averages but well below recent peaks.
“Our estimate for 2025 is significantly lower than the CBO’s estimate of two million mainly because inflows have declined much faster than anticipated,” they wrote.
“In reality…inflows have dropped much more quickly,” state Duzhak and New-Schmidt who project total undocumented entries could fall sixty-six percent relative to last year if current patterns hold steady; higher detention rates plus terminations affecting temporary protection status among some nationalities are expected also push outflow rates higher moving forward which would further depress net migration totals.
The authors emphasize broader implications: “Given slowdown in U.S fertility rate & an aging baby boomer population…NIM has become increasingly important supporting US population growth.” They point out foreign-born individuals made up over half new workforce entrants between 2022–24 based on Bureau Labor Statistics figures; with slower future immigration flows labor market tightness may increase potentially adding upward pressure wages within certain groups.
