Recent revisions to monthly payroll employment data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in August have drawn attention due to their size, raising questions about the reliability of economic data. However, analysis by Sylvain Leduc and Luiz Edgard Oliveira from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco suggests that these changes are not unusual when compared with historical trends over the past six decades.
The BLS reported that data revisions for May and June 2025 were “larger than normal,” resulting in downward adjustments of 125,000 jobs for May and 133,000 jobs for June. These joint downward revisions totaled 258,000 jobs, reducing overall gains for each month to fewer than 20,000 jobs. The revised figure for July showed a gain of 73,000 jobs. This led to concerns that recent labor market strength may have been overstated.
In their March 2025 study, Leduc, Oliveira, and Caroline Paulson examined short-term revisions in payroll employment and consumer price index (CPI) inflation data across several decades. They found that “these revisions were roughly the same size over the two to three years ending in 2024 as they were in the years preceding the pandemic, on average.” According to their analysis, this finding “eases some concerns about the reliability of the data and that monetary policy may become too gradual.”
The topic has also received attention outside academic circles. In June 2025, The Economist discussed whether U.S. economic data was becoming less clear amid ongoing uncertainty. In July, the BLS addressed reductions in data collection related to CPI releases.
Leduc and Oliveira used methodology from their earlier research to assess volatility in payroll employment figures using the Philadelphia Fed’s Real-Time Data Set. Their updated analysis shows that first-round revisions through June 2025 are within historical ranges since at least 1990. While these recent revisions have been somewhat higher than those seen in 2023 and 2024 on average, they remain comparable to pre-pandemic averages.
Monthly breakdowns indicate that while June’s revision was notably large compared with recent months—and exceeded typical pre-pandemic levels—revisions of similar magnitude have occurred repeatedly throughout history, including as recently as December 2023 and January 2024.
When examining longer-term patterns dating back to November 1964 using initial month-to-month revision data from the Philadelphia Fed’s set, Leduc and Oliveira found that “the distribution of first revisions is generally symmetric,” indicating both positive and negative swings occur with similar frequency over time. They note that while a revision as large as June’s is relatively rare—about a seven percent chance—it is not unprecedented.
Their conclusion states: “Overall, some recent revisions to payroll employment gains data were large relative to those issued over the last year or so. Still, over the last 60 years there have been examples of first revisions that were of similar or greater magnitude. This continues to suggest that incoming data are within the historical range and not generally subject to greater fluctuations—and thus may not reflect higher uncertainty—than in the past.”
Both authors hold positions at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco: Sylvain Leduc serves as executive vice president and director of Economic Research; Luiz Edgard Oliveira is lead associate economist in Economic Research.
The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of management at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco or its Board of Governors.
